We can't know the future, not for sure, but it sure is fun to try to predict it, right?
But when we're trying to predict the future, we have few reliable models to follow. Crystal balls, palm readings, and tarot cards are all fine for parties, but you wouldn't rest your pension plan on their predictions. At best, we might know what the weather will be like in a week. Beyond that, we're pretty sure the sun will keep rising, but it's impossible to know if we'll even be there to see it. Everything else is up for grabs. Pretty grim, right?
However, there's a new fortune teller on the block, and it's having a remarkable run of success...
COMMENT to let us know what you would ask!
If two minds are better than one, why not put 50 minds on a problem?
After all, that's what happens in nature with ants and bees and fish and many other flocks of animals. It's also the idea behind UNU, an artificial "swarm intelligence" that leans on many brains to harness and amplify the intelligence of groups. However, don't imagine that UNU is a purely electronic brain; it relies on humans to contribute the brains that form the swarm.
Through UNU, all those human brains end up smarter than the sum of the whole.
And the researchers in charge of UNU have been trying a fascinating experiment with their swarm intelligence: Recruiting experts and trying to make predictions. For example, a swarm of horse racing experts logged into UNU and correctly predicted the 2016 Kentucky Derby. And not just the winner, but the whole superfecta — that's first, second, third, and fourth place in the race. One journalist placed a $1 bet based on UNU's predictions and won $542!
And in the 2016 Stanley Cup Final, UNU predicted the outcome with 95 percent accuracy.
With four teams left and no real consensus, 29 hockey fans — not experts, pundits, or former players — logged into UNU and correctly predicted that the San Jose Sharks would win the Western Conference in six games, the Pittsburgh Penguins would win the Eastern Conference in seven games, and that the Penguins would win it all in the end. The only thing it got wrong was the number of games in the final; UNU said seven games but the Penguins wrapped it up in six.
Of the 29 fans who logged in, the best performance was a mere 80 percent accuracy.
So, embracing their curiosity, the UNU team opened their creation up to reddit for a round of politically-charged predictions.
True to form, the reddit community bombarded UNU with questions. And if UNU's accuracy holds up, we'll be in for a terrifying future...
1. "Will a manned Mars mission take place in the next three decades?"
UNU says "YES."
Apparently UNU is optimistic when it comes to NASA funding.
2. "Will the U.S. suffer a total financial collapse within the next 20 years?"
UNU says "I Doubt It."
Okay, that's the right direction, but I think we would all be happier with some more convincing language there.
"What are the chances that the United States ends the war on drugs by 2020?"
UNU says "0%."
And was anybody really surprised by that answer?
"Will North Korea start the next nuclear war?"
UNU says "No."
Which is good news, but UNU was only about 67% sure of that answer.
So does that mean we'll see World War III anytime soon?
"Do you see conservative or liberal trends in politics?"
UNU says "Liberal."
As Beyonce once said, "To the left, to the left..."
"Voter turnout will be driven most by support for or dislike of a candidate?"
UNU says "Dislike of a candidate."
Yep, I have definitely cast a vote for the least bad candidate.
"Will a great power war erupt within the next fifteen years?"
UNU says "YES."
Which does not necessarily mean the U.S. will jump right in with both feet. Mind you, the good ol' red, white, and blue was late to both World War I and II. And you have to think that, with America's huge military, it won't be able to stay out.
"Will we see World War III within the next 50 years?"
UNU says "Maybe."
Well, thanks for that, UNU. If anybody needs me, I'll be under the covers in the fetal position.
COMMENT to let us know what you would ask UNU!
0 comments: